Served as received in my mail ..
This is a long read, a lengthy email conversation between Estos in Eesti (Jüri Estam), New York (me) and San Diego (Steve Tael) - but for any of you interested in Estonian politics, it's probably worth reading - you decide!
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Jüri and Steve,
Forgive me, but this issue is confusing to me, and I therefore apologize for my "stupid" questions:
I've reviewed the links about Paldiski, Savisaar's vote totals, and the rest, but sitting here in NYC, I somehow haven't gotten info from my other usual sources re: the importance of this issue thus far:
1-What was the election about?
Ostensibly local elections, and in many places like Viljandi, they were local elections. Municipal services and governance were the "benign" themes. As you can see from my previous mail, Northern Estonia from Tallinn to Narva, on the other hand, was embroiled in - let's not mince words - an ethnic struggle for power. Tallinn city govt. has an annual budget of around 7 billion crowns, which is only 10% of the national total, but in reality Savisaar borrows, and in fact much much more money passes through commerce. The SOB runs Tammany Hall.
2-Who was up for election?
Since they were local elections, it was something like 15,000 people ! running for x number of City Council and local municipality slots. Municipal govts. are constituted on basis of seats attained. Savisaar got 53.3% in Tallinn over the splintered Estonian parties (Mart Laar of Pro Patria-Res Publica, Keit Pentus of Reform, Jüri Pihl of Social Democrats, others).
3-What ramifications does this particular election have for politics in Eesti for the future?
Depends on one's world view. Putin is happy. His allies are in control in Tallinn with a majority (I do not exaggerate at all, Savisaar visits Moscow all the time and his sister party is the Medvedev-Putin United Russia party). Even more satisfying for Moscow is the result in Narva and Ida Virumaa. For the loyalist Estonians, control of Tallinn and Narva will never be regained, unless foreign aliens stop having the right to vote at local level. It was 1906 when Estonians wrested control over Tallinn from the Baltic Germans after 700 years. Savisaar and co. are not loyalist Estonians.
Southern Estonia and Western Estonia remain in the hands of Estonians.
Riigikogu has first shot and choosing the President, but the threshold for attaining consensus is high, and more often that not, a large Electoral Board based on municipalities elects the President. Ilves is up for reelection in a couple of years. Trend generally not favorable.
Parliament is in the hands of the Estonians for now. With galvanized Russians and demographic trends and inclusive policies, the number of unrepentant Russian voters (Russians with attitude, even if they have begrudgingly learned some Estonian) is due to increase at the general elections level. This shift will probably come gradually, whatever that means.
Center Party is now engaged in coalition talks with Social Democrats in Tallinn. Probably this marriage will come to pass. SD will thereby enter into friendly relations with CP for the first time, having always been allied before with Estonian loyalist parties. This will create a new leftist bloc in Estonia at the important Tallinn level, and may be a precursor of things to come in Riigikogu a few years down the line. The red roses and slightly Bolshevik proclivities of SD will become more pronounced. A shift to the Left. Within a few days of the election results being made public, Savisaar also made overtures to Rahvaliit, the party of former President Ruutel, who was a high level Soviet functionary. Rahvaliit - the party of the agricultural sector - is down on its luck and will probably just end up being absorbed into Center if it goes this route. Evening news on 21 October hypothesized that a new ever more powerful "Center Left" party will spring of this, if it comes about. Most recent topic of speculation in Estonia: the eventual outcome of various realignments and "effectiveness measures" will be a two party system. I don't fully buy that - Social Democrats have no reason to cast off their identity, for now. Same goes for Laar's party and Ansip's party. Nor will the Greens go into oblivion easily. But in the long term, it may just work that way. The Estonian parties are being forced to reach the conclusion that not being united works to their detriment. But Estonia would be the poorer for not having a multiplicity of word views. "Russian power" in Estonia - an impetus that will force Estonians to unite into one party?
Next year, Nord Stream gas pipeline will get under underway along the Estonian coast bringing out swarms of Russian warships. Militarization of the Baltic Sea unless preventive measures are taken.
Tightening of the noose and growing mental pressures for beleaguered Estonians and Balts.
4-Why has there not been more about this particular election before, I guess I thought I was "connected" via email to Eesti stuff somewhat, seems I'm not!
5-What do we need to do to "spread the word" whatever that might be?
A considered reply would deserve my sitting down and answering really well. This is more off the cuff.
The problems are:
- a resurgent Russia that is not democratic, not just with axes to grind, but numerous active measures plans deployed and operating. Russia is not passive.
- an unrepentant Russian population in Estonia, with some Russians in the Estonian or in the common boat, but all too few, despite the prior and ongoing efforts of genuine integration policies. Steve wants outreach, and I understand the origins of the sentiment, but "loyalty conversion" and demographics are real go-slow areas that cannot be hustled or turbocharged. And the Russians up North are impacted in self-sustaining communities.
- some fundamentally flawed assumptions were made when Estonia regained independence (keep in mind that the Supreme Soviet and many of the people in power did not get out of the way), and some inappropriate policies were adopted - policies not befitting a country emerging from occupation
- Western inclination to pressure the weakest party, in order to enforce peace. Estonians may be in the majority in Estonia herself, but I am speaking of the big picture, and I view the Russian population in Estonia to a substantial degree as something that spills over the border - as essentially contiguous, largely by virtue of dependence on "Central Putin TV".
- fundamentally irreconcilable differences between much of the Russian migrant community and much of the Estonian First Nation
- deficit of frank reporting
- we are at war - a war of wills - and the objective of any war is to weaken the opponent. Estonian numbers are dwindling and morale is not something that can be permanently sustained when one is besieged.
IMO things have gone too far with an aggressive Russia for the former exile and emigre community to not look these problems straight in the face. I do not suggest confrontation as a way out, but Estonians here must stick to their guns and they need succor. More concessions to the Russians will have counterproductive results. Win-win is an idea alien to Russian culture, but a combination strategy of Estonians not backing down, but also looking for practical solutions and ways to win the hearts and minds of the local foreigners are fine by me. Getting Russians in Estonia psychologically differentiated from the goals of Putin and Medvedev is a nearly impossible nut to crack, specially now that things have gotten ideologically rigid and sides have been chosen, but one should at least continue to try.
Mostly I would urge Estonians abroad - especially the remnants of the former exile community - to do a sobriety check and look the reality of the situation in the face.
Describing problems is "easy". Describing the ideal situation is "easy". Devising and implementing the "how do we get there" and "how do we reengage politically" is where the valiseesti body politic needs a brainstorming session.
PS - I am so pressured for time. In theory I'd like to get up and blogging about this, in reality I am just too short on time and cash to get into this properly in the near future.
Here's my partial summary of what went on in the elections. This helps me understand what's going to happen next...
1. IRL and Reform ignored the Russian-speakers, who make up 25% of the national population (36% in harjumaa and 70% in ida-virumaa). They turned out in droves to vote just like in Soviet times.
2. A sizeable number of Estonians didn't vote b/c they were discouraged by the size of the Russian bloc. "why bother?"
3. The weather was rainy, discouraging the marginal voter.
4. Municipal elections can have non-citizen participants, hence the large russian turn-out.
5. Russian turn-out was largest in Russian areas including virumaa & ida-virumaa.
6. Savisaar's party did not do well outside of the Russian areas.
7. Savisaar is very smart, he knows how to pander to weaker citizens, he's an old dog of Soviet times.
8. Laar is now discussing outreach to the russian citizens.
Taagepera's recent work on embracing the colonists makes sense in light of comment 8. Not that I agree with it but I can understand it.
Savisaar being congentially corrupt is his weak spot. There isn't a lot of money to go around and if too few people benefit he'll (hopefully) be rebuked at the polls in the next electtion cycle.
Steve
By way of introduction: It was a mistake in a blue-eyed fashion to experiment and give - under pressure from the Council of Europe and others - suffrage at local election level to the Soviet colonists. What may be appropriate for a country like Sweden that has give asylum to a low percentage of legal immigrants, is a gesture that an ethnos like the Estonian one - still fighting for survival - can ill afford. For a country like Estonia, emerging from occupation, It was a mistake to legalize them all without separating the wheat from the chaff and an even greater political mistake to grant election rights at the local level to the unreformed and the unrepentant. All of these things were done at a time when the "benign drunk" Yeltsin was in power in Russia. When people were optimists (without cause - there's hope-based policies for you) in respect to Russia. Now we have a mean-spirited recidivist Russia next to us. And Russians in Estonia watch Russian TV only. They are more a part of Russia than of Estonia, with some exceptions. Specially alongside the border, but also in Tallinn. One lives in the country whose TV one watches. Broad generalizations but true in essence.
Some of these earlier Estonia policy mistakes should be reversed.
1. IRL and Reform ignored the Russian-speakers, who make up 25% of the national population (36% in Harjumaa and 70% in Ida-virumaa). They turned out in droves to vote just like in Soviet times
More like 30% Russian speakers nation-wide (67% Estonians). "Russian speakers" is not a useful term. Russians and specific nationalities is more useful. E.g. Ukrainians and Georgians are often "Russian speakers" for convenience sake, but are on a different page. It is more complex that "Russian speakers and Estonians." Everyone turned out in record numbers partly because of the economy, but in Northern Estonia and North-eastern Estonia, these were also very much ethnically driven elections. A question of power. This is largely a Liberator Statue issue redux. It is impossible for Laar and Reform to give the Russian speakers what they want, which is Estonian capitulation on history, Estonian capitulation on Georgia, etc. Laar and Ansip do not ignore the Russians. They have Russians in their parties etc., they have doctrines and tactics for the issue. It is just that your mainstream Russian is pissed off. The Estonian establishment media uses code words, for example: "teema oli Pronksodur", in order to not have to write about ethnic worries and ethnic tensions.
2. A sizeable number of Estonians didn't vote b/c they were discouraged by the size of the Russian bloc. "why bother?"
Not true. The "white parties" - an unfortunate phrase in currency here - meaning primarily Estonian and "antired" - implored voters to come out, and between the lines everyone understood that it is a matter of whether Russian-minded parties (Keskerakond etc.) retain control of the Tallinn power hub. Huge numbers of Estonians voted in unprecedented numbers out of a somewhat desperate implicit sense of patriotism to the Estonian cause, to stave off the worst in the North and the Northeast. They failed because the numbers are against them, as long as unrepentant colonists have the vote. And the trend will deepen, not improve. These were tragic elections for the Estonian community. Savisaar's party has long since stopped being the let's hold hands "Popular Front for the Support of Perestroika" phony baloney Song Festival grounds party, and is now the party of the Estonian fellow travellers and Russians.
It is in the future that the Estonians will no longer rise to the occasion, because this supreme effort proved futile. It is a blow to our morale.
3. The weather was rainy, discouraging the marginal voter
Au contraire. That is to say weather was poor, but people defied it because so much was at stake. Turnout was extremely high in the loyalist Estonian camp as well as the resurgent Russian imperialist camp (although that is an oversimplification), specially in Tallinn - 63.5%
4.
5.
6. Savisaar's party did not do well outside of the Russian areas.
Not true. 207,000 Savisaar votes throughout Estonia, compared to 126,000 four years ago. It is just that IRL and Reform did well in certain essentially Estonian cities.
In closing: Estonia has done everything short of falling on her knees and pleading in order accomplish integration - "lõimumine" - during the short span of 15 years. It's true. Huge efforts have been made, lots of money has been spent. Lots of genuine and sincere sweat equity. This shows that the integration thing either a) needs a lot more time or b) does not have real good prospects regardless. Probably b. It all depends on whether Russia is democratic and-or imperialist or not.
I am not sure Laar is making any more efforts than usual to "outreach" to the Russians. It is a binary issue. Either Estonia was annexed in 1939-1940 and was coerced by Soviet Russia into capitulating, or she was not. Laar will not change his tune on this issue and it is the watershed.
Savisaar's ally and party functionary in Narva Stalnuhhin ran on a platform of putting up a statue to Peter I. If you go to Wikipedia, you will find a classical painting there of Peter I on horseback imploring his troops after the "liberation" of Narva 300 years ago to stop pillaging and raping.
In Tallinn, Savisaar put up billboards saying "No Pasaran" in Lasnamäe. clearly siding with the Russians in the Liberator Statue issue and in general siding with them on the Kremlin-sponsored revision of Baltic history that is going on with the full force of the Russian govt. and the desinformatsiya apparatus behind it. (No Pasaran - Spanish Civil War code talk for "Stop the fascists" - Abraham Lincoln Brigade stuff).
One could say more on the issue, but for the Estonian loyalists this was a set of elections that spells irreversible defeat in the North, unless the plug is pulled on suffrage for non-citizens at the local level. In earlier mails I have spelled out ramifications for Presidential elections for Steve, and also for next Riigikogu elections, slated in 2012 if I remember right. These municipality elections are interpreted as being largely a run-up to general elections - a trendsetter.
Jüri
A Special Forces friend of mine wrote the day before last, not knowing anything of this thread of ours nor these developments, and said that if he were I, he would be scouting exit strategies from Estonia by land, sea or air. A friend of Toomas' and I from NYC of old called the evening the election results were being made public, and said she and the children are leaving Eesti in the Spring. That is the degree of sense of discomfort here.
We were genuinely laid low by these developments for about 24 hours in our home. We are now adapting to the gray reality and literally making contingency plans.
Although this is an oversimplified generalization, it is impossible to embrace the colonists if they insist on certain conditions. Impossible. If they insist they freed us when they in fact came in with sword and fire and tortured and oppressed us, and forced tens of thousands of our parents generation to flee, there can be little constructive dialogue. You would never see a discussion in the US of whether George Washington was a traitor to the British crown.
Savisaar's corruption was thrown in his face repeatedly by the Estonian Liberal and Centre-Right parties in this set of elections. Sufficiently. It appears irrelevant to his supporters. He will remain corrupt and disloyal. He will die, and Centre will eventually morph into a full-blown Russian party. At the lower level, the majority of Centre candidates were Russians. They do get promoted into the large "job corps" that the city of Tallinn has, and eventually the cadre of Estonians at the top of Centre will fade away. This is not to suggest in the broadest sense that decent Estonians and decent Russians should not work together. It is to say that the concept - very broadly accepted among Estonians - of "thank God Savisaar is attracting Russians instead of a Russian-led party" is not a sound or lasting idea.
Tallinn city government has gone into debt to spruce up Lasnamäe in specific. I repeat - these were essentially not elections about local issues (garbage and communications) in Northern Estonia. They were about raw ethnic power. And lack of work was factored in.
Few more observations (from Steve?)
1. the election is a rebuke of the neoliberal policies of Laar & Ansip imho. life there (as Juri knows too well) is tough and free- market economics has not brought the sustain ed prosperity that was promised. Laar is adjusting his own party's strategy to be more "inclusive".
2. this is a canary in the coal mine. why? if more relaxed citizenship requirements are put in place (see work by taagepera & others) then the Russians will vote as a bloc for Russian candidates. furthermore, Russian fertility is higher than Estonian fertility - and Estonians are leaving Estonia faster than are Russians. democracy's logical conclusion is further russification - rather than by tanks, it'll be done by the ballot box.
Juri: If I were to try to sum it all up, what happened was a spontaneous and not particularly well organized effort by Estonians and democratically minded voters at the ballot box to "depose" Edgar Savisaar in the city that is the city of cities in Eesti. The effort failed, falling tragically short by just three percentage points or so in Tallinn. Narva area is a separate topic worthy of separate treatment at some other point in time.
Will close by saying that Savisaar is a creepy and sinister figure. He has been an obstructive and most unpleasant presence for all of the last 25 years or so of his most visible career, and he has all of the earmarks of a dangerous member of the old Soviet nomenklatura. Personality cult, corrupt, inclination towards dictatorship, pyramidical party structure, it's all there, kept in check only by the rule of law to the extent that the rule of law can make itself felt in this relatively adolescent and unformed society. A gifted man, but then so is Hannibal Lecter.
After one of my "constitutionals" - an exercise walk in the woods the other day, we stopped for a moment at the house of relatives and had a cup of coffee and a chat. Lauri, who is about 20 years old, spoke up and asked how it was that people could have been so misinformed about the Rahvarinne in 1990 and thereabouts. Lauri shook his head. "Could Savisaar really the same guy who was up on the podium during the Singing Revolution night festivals?"
During the blue-black and white singing revolution, Savisaar and his buddies were a false flag operation - The Popular Front in Support of Perestroika", no different from the Popular Fronts in Support of Perestroika that were put in place from above in all of the former Soviet Republics, although I correct myself. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania differ. As far as I am concerned, they were never Soviet Republics, except in USSR-imposed parlance only. Savisaar cast the flag off a long time ago as no longer useful.
18 October 1939 was the day that Red Army troops came across the border and entered Estonia after Tallinn had been coerced to enter into a mutual assistance pact with Stalin.
18 October 2009 was a watershed day. An inflection point, when it was revealed to the Estonian public that their votes - despite a concerted effort - are and will remain insufficient to carry Tallinn under the current arrangement. Essentially the same thing happened in Riga not so long ago.
19 October was a day of mourning in many Estonian households. A day that inevitably weakened the resolve of many. This does not mean that the situation is fully hopeless or irreparable, but we are not in an ordinary situation either. There is much at stake.
I appreciate the conversation we are having and your "thumbs up" as well.
Jüri
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