by Reimo
The Soviet attack began in 14th January, 1944, near Leningrad and I'm making an assumption that they would have straight up succeeded to force themselves through the frontline near Narva river and whole Estonia. So ?
Remembering that by the time of 2th Feb the Soviets had moved from Volhov river to Narva river and had already made a first landing on the western bank of Narva river. The German forces were in a hasty retreat at that time and if the Estonian units would not have been able to stall the enemy advance in Narva with some German units in good fighting condition and battle-hardened Wiking division, then it would have been hardly possible to put up defensive lines in Sinimäed and on the Emajõgi (Mother River, flows through Tartu, connecting lakes of Võrtsjärv and Peipsi). So, within a month not only Estonia, but also Latvia and Lithuania would have been taken and by the end of March the Soviet forces would have been at the northern border of Eastern Prussia.
I'd like to point out that the attack on Finland was prepared in April, but was waiting for the success of the Red Army on the south coast of Gulf of Finland, to get the required operational space for the Soviet airforce and Navy in the whole Baltic Sea region. Because then the trade routes between Finland and Germany would have been cut off.
Following it would have been the strikes on Åland islands and Gotland, staged from here, the south coast of the Gulf of Finland. And the main attack on Finland would not have started in 9th June 1944, but sooner in April (and as a lot of Soviet forces intended to be used in Finland were actually tied up in the Sinimäed, the attack on Finland would have been in greater numbers and in higher morale).
Let's remember here that in April 1944 the Allied advance was halted in Monte-Cassino, Central Italia, yet the Soviet forces had crossed the rivers of Dnestr, Bug and Prut - the last places before Eastern Europe where the Germans could have put up defensive positions. The Normandy, on the 6th June, wasn't happened yet and I don't think it could have been made sooner. As the result, the whole Europe would have been open for the Soviet Army by the time of April, 1944. The Allied forces and Soviets would not have met on the Elbe river, but rather on rivers of Rhein and Po. Taking into account the pro-communist influence in Northern Italy, Greece and France, it would be very unlikely that the Soviets would have stopped on Rhein and Po.
So, in my honest opinion - the whole existence of the Europe today was decided back then, early 1944, in the battles over the Narva River and Sinimäed. I bet they didn't tell you about that in the history class ?
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