Russia - or any other country you care to name - threatens Finland militarily, and Finland asks for support. Who is going to help us, or will we be left to shift for ourselves ?
Finland in NATO :
If Finland is attacked, the government will tender a request for assistance from the North Atlantic Council (NAC). The Permanent Representatives of each member-state can meet in session in the Council at a couple of hours’ notice. The NAC must decide unanimously on the granting of assistance.
If and when a positive decision on help is forthcoming, each NATO member will then decide independently what kind of aid it is to provide.
NATO no longer has detailed plans for the defence of its member-states, as existed during the Cold War era, when NATO units were on permanent stand-by to rebuff the threat from the Soviet Union. Finland would probably lead its own defence, and NATO assistance would be coordinated through one of the European command and control centres.
Troops will need to be sent to Finland from abroad, as in peacetime Finland will not have NATO bases or troops on its soil.
It is possible that NATO would initially send a rapid response force of the type in readiness somewhere in Central Europe. Finland has already modified its ports and airports in such a way that it is easy to accommodate NATO troops and materiel.
Finland not in NATO :
Nobody has any obligation to assist Finland militarily, but help can come from both Europe and the United States. The EU’s articles on security and solidarity oblige Union member-states to at least take some form of action in response to an appeal.
Since Finland is a NATO Partnership for Peace associate, NATO will hear Finland’s concerns, but the alliance has no obligation to provide help.
Any NATO decision on the matter is likely to be influenced by whether or not the crisis involving Finland has ramifications for some other NATO country, for instance Estonia or Norway.
NATO member Estonia is faced with a military threat, and Estonia asks for assistance from other countries. How does Finland react ?
Finland in NATO :
Along with the other NATO members, Finland will in this instance have to decide what actions it considers necessary. Estonia does not as yet have the readiness to take in large numbers of NATO troops at short notice.
The number of Finnish troops to be kept in readiness for a situation such as this would be determined in the course of joining NATO
The figure would in all probability be roughly 1,500 to 2,000 men.
Finland would herself decide on the numbers of soldiers to be despatched to Estonia.
Finland not in NATO :
Finland cannot stand aside from the dispute. The European Union has its own security article, and right now work is progressing on what exactly this obliges the EU members to do. The obligation to defend a fellow member is nonetheless not as strong as that within NATO.
Finland will help Estonia by diplomatic means within the EU and within the United Nations forum. Finland has in the past already provided Estonia with arms and has assisted in the training of Estonian soldiers.
The United States might request the use of Finnish airspace for overflying purposes, and Finland might agree to this if there is an understanding that the U.S. will guarantee Finland’s security in the event that the issue causes knock-on problems for Finland.
Finland wishes to decide independently on its relations with Russia, and on how Finland acts in the United Nations. Is this feasible ?
Finland in NATO :
Joining NATO does not restrict Finland, but NATO membership will cool Russian feelings towards Finland, at least for some time.
As a NATO member Finland will be able to participate in workings of the NATO-Russia Council.
NATO membership does not limit Finland’s room to manoeuvre in the European Union or the United Nations, since - unlike the EU - NATO has no common foreign policy and NATO member-countries do not deliver common statements or addresses in international forums and organisations. Membership might affect the way Finland is seen in countries where NATO is a party in a conflict situation, for example in the Balkans.
Finland not in NATO :
In its relations with Russia, Finland will have to take account of the lines of common EU foreign policy. The same thing goes within the United Nations.
How does Finland ward off terrorist attacks ?
Finland in NATO :
Counter-terrorism is the province of the police in each individual country, but intelligence-gathering via NATO can help in preventing or neutralising terror attacks.
For example, in the case of the Madrid train bombings in March 2004, NATO played no part whatsoever in resolving the matter.
The terror attacks on New York and Washington in September 2001 were an exception. For what has thus far been the only time, NATO then applied Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, covering collective self-defence following an armed attack against one or more members, and promised to help the United States, as the airborne terror-bombings were interpreted as an attack on U.S. territory.
Intelligence from NATO sources can help in blocking a terrorist attack. NATO can also help in clearing up and reconstruction, or it could take part in advance security operations, for example before a major international event such as the FIFA World Cup finals or the Olympic Games.
According to the experts, NATO membership does not increase the likelihood of terror attacks.
Membership has not made either Norway or Iceland targets for organised terror.
On the European continent, the threat of attack has in certain cases been increased by participation in the US-led coalition in Iraq. This is not a NATO operation.
Finland not in NATO :
The police are responsible for counter-terrorism activities. Cooperation in preventing terror attacks is a primary goal in the EU.
Europol gathers information on suspected terrorists and the threat of terrorism in the EU area.
Finland currently spends 1.3% of GDP on defence. Will defence spending go up ?
Finland in NATO :
Finland will face pressures to increase its defence spending.
NATO’s target is that members use around 2 per cent of GDP on defence. The majority of NATO member-states are nevertheless far from this figure, and the situation is not changing, as NATO has no powers to force its members to hike up their defence expenditure.
At present, only seven of the current 26 members of the alliance meet the desired 2% target.
Finland’s pressures in this department will be eased somewhat by the fact that Finland can muster the troops and military hardware required by NATO within the framework of its current defence budget. Finland can also technically increase its defence spending by including border control expenditure under this budget item.
Finland not in NATO :
Defence expenditure may well increase, since maintaining the current level of defence capability is going to be difficult on the present defence budget.
Finland needs more technologically advanced - and more expensive - weaponry.
Payroll costs will also rise, when there is a need for better- educated and skilled military personnel. As a militarily non-aligned country, Finland will decide for itself how the money is spent and how much is to be spent.
Can Finland maintain its national service profile, or will a professional army be on the agenda ?
Finland in NATO :
In addition to a conscripted army in the Finnish Defence Forces, NATO Finland will have units of professional soldiers. They will be part of the NATO military capability packages that can be deployed in different corners of the world.
Conscription will become a more selective affair, and the military reserve will decline in size from 350,000 soldiers in arms to 150,000-200,000.
Finland is already concentrating its regional defence capability on the Karelian, Kainuu, and Pori Brigades. These military brigades may be more prone than others to take part in NATO operations. Resources will be directed to a greater degree towards international operations.
Finland not in NATO :
National service conscription has already become appreciably more selective, and the reserve strength is being downsized. In addition to military national service and the civil alternative, it will become possible to serve for instance in social and health care tasks.
Already we are seeing the concentration of regional defence capability and resources to fewer and fewer units.
Finland will continue to develop specifically its air and naval arms, since current military thinking has all but ruled out the likelihood of a ground attack on Finnish territory.
NATO asks its members and Partnership for Peace associates for more troops for military crisis management and rapid response forces. Will Finland supply the men and arms ?
Finland in NATO :
There is no obligation to send men, even if pressures do exist to do so.
This autumn many NATO member-countries have refused to redeploy their troops to the violent southern provinces of Afghanistan.
There have been signals out of NATO to the effect that Finland need not expand the size of its forces for crisis management, since Finland’s current contribution is well in line with the country’s resources.
Finland can be expected to provide NATO operations with troops more specifically geared for combat situations, but on the other hand certain NATO members have refused similar requests, appealing to national legislation making it impossible.
When one has agreed to take part in an operation, it will be difficult to withdraw before things are brought to a conclusion.
Finland not in NATO :
Finland is not obliged to take part in international crisis management operations, but as a member of the EU and the United Nations it will be difficult to turn a completely deaf ear to requests.
Finland has around 1,000 soldiers stationed around the world, the majority of them in NATO-led operations.
The pressure to take part could become particularly intense for non-NATO countries in situations where the troops being sought should be seen to be as neutral as possible, given the specific nature of the crisis.
What will happen when Finland wants to engage in international cooperation over arms purchases, strategic planning, or intelligence sharing, and in bilateral defence cooperation with a non-NATO Sweden ?
Finland in NATO :
The acquisition of military hardware will become easier when Finland can take part in large orders with other NATO countries. Finnish industry will also get a foot in the door to develop the multi-billion-euro arms industry of the NATO countries.
Cooperation with Sweden will go ahead as before. NATO membership has not hampered the rapidly increasing military cooperation that has gone on between Sweden and its NATO neighbour Norway.
Finland not in NATO :
The EU will in any event develop cooperation in the arms industry and in arms purchasing.
Finland will not benefit in full from NATO intelligence sharing, even if the country takes part in crisis management operations and exercises.
Bilateral defence cooperation with Sweden will increase in any case. We have already seen joint crisis management exercises, shared use of materiel, and the exchange of information.
Will nuclear weapons be brought to Finland ?
NATO has a readiness to use nuclear weapons. The nuclear deterrent is characterised as the final padlock in NATO’s security guarantees.
NATO has announced that it does not intend to station nuclear weapons on the territory of its new members.
Even at present, it is possible that vessels sailing in or under Finland’s territorial waters may have nuclear weapons aboard.
Is Finnish NATO membership at odds with national legislation or our obligations under international agreements ?
As a member of NATO, the Act on the Finnish Defence Forces will have to be amended such that the task of the FDF is the defence of other NATO countries in addition to the protection of Finland itself.
Crisis management operations could remain voluntary, but taking part in a declared war abroad would not be.
The position of the demilitarised Åland Islands will have to be agreed separately.
Under the terms of an international treaty, the islands are a demilitarised zone, and only Finland can defend them against aggression.
NATO membership has also been believed to be in contravention of the international treaty pertaining between Finland and Russia, and indeed at odds with the laws of Finland.
However, there is no contradiction between the basic NATO accords and Finnish legislation.
The doubts have been founded on the idea that Russia could appeal to the terms of the bilateral treaty concluded between the two countries in order to prevent Finland’s joining NATO.
Opponents of NATO membership also express concerns over the claim that NATO is guilty of violations in the secret drafting of its decisions.
Can Finland become a NATO member, if it so wishes ?
Finland satisfies the military and political criteria for NATO membership, and then some.
The idea that NATO would reject a Finnish application for membership requires a very tense situation, for instance a bilateral crisis with Russia that Finland has brought upon itself.
NATO expects and requires that there should be public support for membership within Finland. This condition is met if the application is ratified according to the normal legal channels, in other words by a Parliament chosen through free and fair elections.
Finland does not need to arrange a referendum on NATO entry.
All the same, public opinion is a significant factor, since NATO has no wish to take on board a country whose population is actively straining against the alliance.
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 18.11.2007
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