The Economist
Doubling your living standard every six years would seem a breakneck pace of growth even in East Asia. In Europe, it is unheard of. But two Baltic countries, Estonia and Latvia, are growing at 11.6 per cent and 10.9 per cent, respectively.
This speed is unexpected. Of 13 forecasts looked at last year by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the highest for Estonia was 6.4 per cent ; even Estonia's own central bank reckons that the long-term growth rate is only 7 per cent to 8 per cent.
The pair's high growth is an exceptional product of good luck and good policies. Both countries are stable, business-friendly and cheap, and lie close to large, rich markets.
They have flat taxes, cleanish government, balanced budgets and stable currencies pegged to the euro. Foreigners like all this : Estonia is Europe's biggest recipient per head of foreign investment.
Consumption is soaring in both countries, as is credit. Estonia will see money-supply growth of 33 per cent this year ; in Latvia mortgage lending rose by 90 per cent in the year to October, and credit-card lending doubled.
That reflects the rise of a western-style financial industry that lends in a way yet to develop in most of eastern Europe. "Foreign banking is a big reason for our success," says Andres Lipstok, governor of Estonia's central bank.
Can the good times last? Signs of a property bubble abound. The authorities want to tighten banks' lending. If a crash came, its effects should be contained by outside ownership of banks (99 per cent in Estonia, and 80 per cent in Latvia) : foreign shareholders, not local taxpayers, would suffer if loans went bad.
Both countries have huge current-account deficits (17.9 per cent of GDP in Latvia and 12.5 per cent in Estonia). But for poor economies trying to catch up on 50 years of development missed under communism, a thirst for imported technology is commendable. Balance sheets are strong -- indeed, Estonia has no net foreign debt.
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