According to Swedbbank's pessimistic scenario Estonia will be hit by 12/14% economic downturn this year and the economy will fall by more than 3% next year.
Its likeliness is 20%. !!!!! (Marge Tubalkain-Trell)
In the worst case Estonia will be struck by strong negative shock that will need harsh measures, the analyst said.
She said that the state is unable to apply a short-term survival strategy or growth strategy in case it fails to make the right decisions because of a lousy economic policy.
"In that case we will smoulder for a long time and end where Latvia was in the autumn," Lauri said.
The main scenario sees economy contracting 8/10% this year and 2/3% next year.
Adaption in the world gives basis for the main scenario to happen, Lauri said. !!!!! (Marge Tubalkain-Trell)
"Although this may not be enough, I see no reason for another great fall," she said.
serious incentives should be offered to the Estonian Diaspora to return;
first of all, no tax on non remitted foreign earnings;
the core of the Lithuanian and White Russian Empires was formed mainly by Estonians,
(Gediminids etc...)
if these families return to their craddle, we will see a dynamic expansion again,
involving the Baltic to Crimea corridor, thus reinvigorating the fringe neighbours:
ex soviet oriental provinces (Moscov etc...) and the brain children of the Gediminid_ Jagiellos: west European regions which were transformed by their offsprings into workable entities; at the moment most of these Eastern and Western regions are returning slowly to the beginning;
Posted by: Jean-Pierre PAATS-WILLIAMS | May 22, 2009 at 22:03
I think what Estonia needs is a highly talented management at national and local level;
at the moment the place feels like semi abandonned;
recruitment should start urgently at international level;
english speaking should be made compulsory for all government staff;
Posted by: Jean-Pierre PAATS-WILLIAMS | May 22, 2009 at 21:51